2023 Projections are Abysmal
2023 is getting extremely mixed reviews.
We all know we're already in a recession and have been for a while, no mater what POTUS has to say about it, but many assume that the worst has yet to come. Everyone is expecting some grand disaster to happen that we can all point to and say, "See? There it is: that's the bottom of the recession." But what if that moment never comes? How will we know and when will we finally stop waiting for it to happen.
My guess is that by the time this year is over the recession will be over, and at the very least the worst part of it will be behind us, which is the most important aspect for the markets, as markets tend to speculate in advance. Meaning that crypto will be in a full blown bull market pretty much immediately on recognition that the worst of the recession is behind us.
However this will be no use to people interacting with the physical economy. For example, if you got laid off it's not going to matter if the worst of the recession is behind us; you still may find it difficult to find a job long after that. On a personal level I find myself very furtunate to have such amazing tenure here at Hive blockchain (not Technologies).
Tech companies are absolutely scrambling.
Basically every tech company out there is laying off their workforce, and everyone is sounding the alarm and claiming that the recession has begun. And yet, we already know that we've been in one for over a year. Did people suddenly start believing the administration when they say that we're not in a recession yet? I find this weird.
To be fair some of this is also the FED's fault and how they have completely mishandled their war against inflation. At this point I'm all but convinced that everything they've done is by design, and that they've baked a deflationary 2023 into the cake. There will be no growth this year economically. Prices will continue to decline and people will continued to be laid off.
What does this mean for crypto?
Well my opinion is that Bitcoin is comically oversold right now because the doubling curve is above $50k right now. Any price below $50k BTC is a massive discount. The move from $15.5k to $23k was largely irrelevant. We'll all look back at this time 3 years from now and realize that anyone that bought anything even remotely near this level was able to increase their bag size by several factors (if measured in USD of course).
We would all do well to remember that even though crypto is connected to the legacy system, it still exists outside of it at the core. The Titanic can sink and the crypto lifeboats will still be floating (some of them anyway). Any network with a defined and valuable niche will survive and be an important part of our future (more on this in another post).
Like I said, there are many alarmists out there talking about the tens of thousands of people being laid off in tech. Tech was extremely overextended during the bull market, and for good reason. It's easy to over leverage tech and get massive gains in the process. We got rewarded for so long in tech by increasing our risk that we got caught with our pants down in 2022. Now capitulation has been accelerating. However, can we really apply this same level of alarm to other industries? Not so much.
Even my girlfriend's company laid off a couple people, and this is a company that largely views themselves as "recession proof". In fact it was a company that was founded in the middle of the last recession during the housing crisis. It's a construction company that focuses on cheaper materials and high insulation R values, which is something many are looking for even in the middle of a recession.
The fact that my girlfriend's company laid off just 2 people is actually more alarming to me than Google laying off 12k people.
However, we can see that many people in the comments of these alarmist posts are quick to point out other numbers that show us that this recession is actually being heavily exaggerated. Look at the growth on Amazon since 2019. They basically doubled their work force. That's insane. A couple thousand layoffs in the face of that is nothing. Who cares?
And then there is the way that companies are laying off their employees. Google botched their layoffs so badly and now everyone is pissed. There was no rhyme or reason to them: just seemingly random and without warning. Very unprofessional.
And then there are gems like this that advise you to be BAD AT YOUR JOB if you don't want to get laid off. So funny hearing this as an aspiring Hive developer. Don't make modular code with good documentation: if you do that you're replaceable. If you make spaghetti-factory code that makes no sense and has no documentation then they can't fire you. lol. Classic and amazing example of how crypto will eventually take over everything. Capitalism financially incentivizes bad practice by design. So many doors are closed to the legacy system that are open for crypto.
Parul Koul, executive chair of Alphabet Workers Union-CWA in a statement Friday. “This is egregious and unacceptable behavior by a company that made $17 billion dollars in profit last quarter alone.”
And then there are comments like this one...
People who talk like this are completely blind to the reality of the system we live in. It does not matter how much money Google has made or lost. Google is a business, and businesses make money. Welcome to capitalism.
It's being heavily implied here that because Google is a successful company they should be willing to take a profit loss in order to avoid layoffs and retain dead-weight. What kind of logic is that? Not only is it bad practice, but it's also how we end up with zombie corporations and institutions that are "too big to fail" and then end up getting bailed out by the taxpayer in a failing-up situation. Is that what we want?
Again crypto shows that the new path we will eventually take is building robust communities that don't treat their people like cattle. Citizens aren't pieces of meat. Citizens are not collateral, but that's exactly how the legacy system treats everyone. Crypto will eventually change the paradigm and make it so the currency, networks, and platforms are actually in alignment with community and long-term growth and investments. It might take a few decades, but we'll get there.
And then there are the speculators.
Let's not forget that sometimes perception is reality. If the Chinese believe the year of the rabbit is lucky, then maybe it will be. Like I said in a previous post, it looks like February is primed to be a good month, and Feb is often a very volatile month (in both directions). We also need to remember that our country is not the only country, and China isn't doing nearly as bad on the economic side right now as some are reporting. I saw a report that shows that the average worker in China actually is better off than Americans, if you can believe that (not sure that I do but simply the claim is interesting nonetheless as I wouldn't have even considered that before).
Markets move faster than the lumbering beast of the economy. By the time this recession hits its lowest, assuming it hasn't already, markets will be in a full blown bull market. Speculators gonna speculate.
In all cases: recessions only hit a percentage of the population. Some people will not be affected, as I remember very well from the housing crisis as I was not affected one bit except that a mutual fund that my dad set up had some losses on it that took a while to recover. That was it. I expect that may be the case again in 2023, even if the 2022 crypto bear market was un..bear..able.
2023 will likely be a year of zero overall growth and deflation created by the recession and exacerbated by the FED's response to inflation. Luckily crypto exists outside the system and will continue to grow, no matter what the price valuations are. Crypto is the solution for sustainability and balance within an otherwise cancerous ecosystem that relies on constant growth. We just have to keep building to get out of this awkward infancy phase we find ourselves in.
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We are probably already past the bottom of this bear market. Now it remains only to wait for the killer whales to become like recent whales in $ equivalent.
People are feeling it in all kind of different ways. Crypto can be an answer for many, but will not be for most right now. People that I can't even talk to people offline about crypto as most don't understand it, scared of it, or think it's an outright scam. So we still have some time. I am here doing my work, because I believe in it, but I am going to be starting a farm because I have also been bitten in the ass by crypto as well, so have to hedge your bets in different ways.
As far as the job economy right now, it is freaking horrible. Even the gig economy here in my area is drying up fast and furious. The only jobs I see are crap warehouse and fast food jobs. So here I am, busting my ass to build blockchain platforms because it's the only thing that even halfway pays right now, lol.
Even freelancing has been pretty bad lately, getting clients to pay for work is like pulling teeth because people don't have it, well not speaking for all, I just have 1 really shitty client that owes me enough to get out of this hole they put me in, lol.
Anyway... yeah, times are hard, but hey, at least we have Hive.
Google is a public company and they have to convince shareholders quarter after quarter after quarter not to jump ship... so I totally agree... there is no logic that any public company should retain people regardless of profits.
I think a lot of tech companies were employing like absolute crazy mid-2020 as the world had to quickly figure out how to work remotely. Amazon was stealing people from everyone with salaries that no one else could compete with.... so obviously tech was going to shed more people than usual as everything cooled down.
I'm glad Hive has kept you on. I wonder if there is a point where OGs don't get upvotes because too many exciting and very popular content creators jump aboard after Tik Tok gets banned or whatever.
There's a few aspects that say we are in for harder times that many are watching over the next few months. The crazy thing about a recession is it often ends with a very sharp decline and then a rally shortly behind it. I'm not convinced on the stock market side of things that we have seen that yet while on the crypto side I almost feel like people are pouring in because it's actully feeling like a safer bet then the corrupt stock market as well as corrupt gold and silver.
Indeed I believe the decoupling has been getting stronger and stronger over the last few months, but it not fully reflected yet in the markets.
I think crypto will take a beating at the start as people need to cash out to shore up their finances. But, that would make crypto all that much more profitable to buy for the long term. I don't expect the dump to last too long for crypto. For the economy, I'd say to mid 2024 or earlier.
This is a comment to pay attention to.
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Wish I had massive hive $ to fall back on but my $0.40 per post isn’t going to keep a roof over our heads. My fate is in my bosses hands for a while yet :(
Yeah man honestly it's quite unfortunate.
Someone of your talent should be making six figures here or more and never looking back.
But we just don't have the infrastructure and the ability to support the community like we should.
There are so many people here that would straight up quit their jobs and just work for Hive if we could actually afford to pay them and if they could in turn actually provide enough value to the network to justify the wage. Meh! One day!
Can't wait to have this option.
I guess outside of the games it’s really still a small community :)
Truly mixed, but the recession will be here soon enough. Hopefully crypto will raise up our hopes.
One thing to keep in mind is that markets recover quicker than economies. Risk on will happen before the economy bottomed.
It is the way it goes so we have to be prepared. People will be losing their jobs and we will see crypto and other assets taking off.
Not sure when the bull run starts but it will be when the media is screaming about the economy.
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"BEFORE" you say?
Wild. Economies are weird.
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I was reading and writing about the recession last year till I found out a lot of the analysts were talking out of their asses and pulling out numbers. They all are saying what they hope will happen. The CEO of Bank of America made statements of where he saw prices going and by his analysis, everything was going to be fine then they asked him about the crypto market and he said BTC is crap.
My gut could tell me all this crap.
In the next five years, I believe there will be an unprecedented bull rally in the tech industry (and crypto). Because, as everyone who is concerned with the future knows, technological development is accelerating, so productivity is increasing exponentially. Bull rallies should be longer and more volatile than their historical counterparts. The 2022 bear market offered people an opportunity to get rich. I bought my Hive coins and Splinterlands cards; I'm ready.
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That's a hell of a post. Something that plebs who prefer getting into mainstream shit should read. If everyone is screaming recession is not going to happen, or better said when everyone is pointing at that it's not going to happen. Same as with $10k BTC. The majority is always wrong. Dead wrong.