Time to swap you HBD savings for Hive Power?

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Bottoming out

We are seeing a pretty bad few weeks for crypto in general, Bitcoin is now at around 33k USD, which is, according to the "Doubling Curve" theory which @edicted explains so interestingly in this post, a bottom which will stand quite tall. This means we are bottoming out. At least Bitcoin is.

As for Hive, right now it is following the trend downwards together with about the entire market, lead by Bitcoin. But that will probably end quite soon. Now two things can happen from then on. The entire market can jump up and take Hive all the other coins with it. Or Bitcoin will start cannibalizing alts. The million dollar question is, will Hive be part of that if that scenario happens? The answer is quite simple, nobody knows.

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Image by Steve Hodl

The Hive evolution

That is why I am trying to focus on the evolution of Hive. And, therefor, we can not throw it in a bunch together with alle the other altcoins. Because, we all have to admit, a lot is going on here, and a lot is being set-up for the immediate future. That is why, I don't believe Hive would follow the trend of other coins downwards if Bitcoin starts eating up altcoins. In my opinion Hive can stand pretty damn tall against the competition. And this could be near bottom for Hive too. At least in my opinion. And I think lots of others will agree with me on that. As @taskmaster4450 has pointed out many times here before, we are at the very beginning of a revolution, especially when it comes to DeFi. And let Hive and Leofinance be betting big on that right now. The pHive release being one of them, and in the upcoming months followed with the launch of bHive. Liquidity is key these days, and a steady stablecoin coupled with that is a major plus for this blockchain.

This all makes me think we are most probably seeing the bottom for Hive coming in too. So, in my opinion it is a no brainer to exchange some of that HBD savings for Hive Power. Because we don't know if we will ever have such an opportunity to buy Hive this cheap in the future.

Calculating risks and taking chances

Life is all about taking chances, some of them, probably most of them are half chance, 50/50 as they say. And a lot of luck is involved. But if you take most of the chances you get, the coin will drop on the right side a lot more, than when you don't take any of the chances that come along your path.
That is just simple mathematics. Well, this chance is more an 80/20 probability, so I will take it.
If I take 5 80/20 chances, I will be right 4 out of 5 times... Again mathematics here.

I am just expressing my opinion and my insights in the market here, so don't take this as advice, do your own research, read a lot, and make an opinion of your own. That is always the best thing to do!

Sincerely,

Pele23

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta



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14 comments
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Most likely, I will move along the 50/50 path and not make sharp accents. Over time, the situation changes and it is impossible to predict which option will be better.

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The expected bottom for BTC was ~32k USD and then there were worse predictions. I don't feel like buying yet. I'll wait and see.

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Well, my experience tells me that it is impossible to buy at the bottom, or maybe just once, if you are lucky. So I am going to take my chances now! ;-)

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I don't have much stablecoin and yields are better than buying before the bottom.

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Sounds uprising but my take is HIVE still has room to fall. The bottom will probably be something like $0.35 - $0.40.

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It's a good question you pose, and to be honest I reckon we are nearing the bottom now, and any Hive picked up for 0.65 to 0.70 HBD represents serious value.

I actually started with the HBD savings while waiting for this exact opportunity, but now that I have savings (similar amount than you) I kind of want to leave compounding away at 20% APR.

Tough decision to be fair. I would be really interested to know the inner working of the 20% though and how often the interest is calculated? Is it monthly or quarterly or what? That would be a key consideration in when or if to take it out of savings.

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It’s compounding monthly, so the APY is actually 21,94 %… Which is pretty amazing. But Hive going from 0.65 to 1 USD is 50 %…

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Yes interesting point to be fair, so a good strategy could be to withdraw it all and buy Hive and then just leave the liquid Hive until we get parity again where HBD = Hive and then reinvest the HIVE into HBD savings. I would be shocked if that does not happen in 2022 sometime, so you would affectively make twice the profit in half the time.... I like it @pele23, I like it...

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You're very right about this, we may never get the opportunity to see hive being low to buy and so we have to actually take the opportunity now. I also believe that's so sweet time g good engagement and posting curation rewards.

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I am not sure and will most likely leave my HBD in place for now as 21% is still not bad. I think the price could drop further so if we are talking 40c then yes getting 2.5 Hive for every HBD sounds rather amazing and will do.

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yea. when I started in hive, I was all HP (on my post rewards), now I switched to 50/50. It will be very interesting to see how things play out in the next few months.

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I don't think I will take out my HBD from savings just yet but I don't plan on adding more HBD to the savings right now. My current liquid HBD can be used to buy some Hive and I just placed an order. When the price does drop down further under 50 cents, I will probably start taking out the HBD then.

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