The economic desintegration of China has begun
China and its reverse population pyramid
The last decades China has known a massive economic growth, which made it an economic superpower. This was mostly fuelled by its population explosion, the need for consumption grew every year and there was a huge opportunity for the people to get a job, because of the massive pool of people that were available on the labour market.
But, as of now, that situation has completely changed. The population of China is shrinking and will keep on shrinking the next decades. Because of a hugely aging workforce that will near retirement in the next years. This opposite pyramid is extreme in China, and it will be an economic massacre. Especially because 90 % of the processes for making food in China have an import factor.
This means that less economic activity will diminish wealth, and will make it harder and more expensive to import the necessary goods for the processes needed for most of the food. This makes China very susceptible for a period of famine, which will put the reverse pyramid even more under pressure.
The age group between 50 and 60 is the biggest, which is a huge bottle neck for China
A less globalised market
For the future we can expect a much less globalised market, which shorter supply chains. All because of the fact that China won’t be possible to export as they are doing now. This will force European markets and the USA to produce more themselves or get their resources from closer by.
This pivotal information for the investor, an investor that calculates this into his investments will make a lot more money than others in the next decade!
Sincerely,
Pele23
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oh wow, I always thought, till now, that China was the most populated country in the worlds, and that would never change. guess not.
I talked to plenty of my friends in China so I have some insight to share. Part of the reason as to why the population is dropping is that a lot of the younger generations aren't looking to getting into marriage and have kids nowadays. Of course, the people in the more rural area with the more traditional mindsets still have plenty of kids. It's the opposite for the city folks. They simply don't put building a family as their priority. Women are also more into career pursuit more than ever nowadays over there so family becomes a secondary priority for both genders over there. Factor in the increased cost to have a child nowadays, and it's just too much for many couples to afford even if they have the desire to do so. After we add up everything, it's expected for the birth rate to go low.
China government tried to push different strategies to increase the birth rate but it's to no avail. They went from "one child per family" in the 90s to "three children per family" recently -- but if no family wants to have three children anyway, then it doesn't matter.
At some point they sorta gave up on the younger generations and pushed incentives to have older couples to add new kids to their family. You can see how desperate they are when they have to do this.
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We are going through recession and every country economy is in decline.
Not every country is in recession yet, I think most will escape it. What China is about to face is unprecedented in history, a lot bigger than any recession