November 23rd 2021 - Nobody Saw It Coming?

(source: Wikimedia Commons)

Inflation is, as most of the people in the world know by now, a fact of life, and, sadly, fact of life that is going to last for a long time. While many, especially those in some more less fortunate countries like Zimbabwe or Venezuela, had long and bitter experience with that economic phenomenon, this is appearing to be something quite new for people in the First World. Most of developed countries have never seen serious inflation since 1970s and now, almost half a century later, it returns with a vengeance.

Ordinary people, suddenly faced with unpleasant realisation that 10 dollars or 10 euros in their pockets can buy them only what 8 dollars or 8 euros used to do one year ago, might feel unpleasantly surprised. But there is another, more depressing and disturbing aspect of the sudden return of inflation. The economists and other experts that were supposed to predict arrival of inflation were actually as clueless as public in general. Either they played down the risks of inflation or they pretended that the low inflation paradigm of major First World economies would last forever.

Nothing illustrates that point as the tweet by The Economist, arguably one of the most respected and influential magazines in the world. Its article claims that many economists were "blindsided" about inflation and that "nobody saw it coming".

The sharp increase in inflation over the past year has blindsided many economists. Almost no one saw it coming https://t.co/ggikkcZUvW pic.twitter.com/P66isbuTgv

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) November 19, 2021

This tweet was cause for rather predictable ridicule among many who were actually predicting arrival of the inflation. Anyone with basic knowledge of mathematics would have guessed that the sudden and spectacular increase of money in circulation would inevitably lead to sudden and spectacular increase in prices. Serious and respected economists that failed to do so are either hypocritical liars or charlatans.

Their attitude towards the inflation can be interpreted as either part of systemic global-wide gaslighting of the world’s public in order to enforce Orwellian notions of new reality or as the ultimate proof that the governments and other parts of global elite don’t know what they are doing and what the future has in store. Both of those conclusions are disturbing in their own way.

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This is a very disturbing situation and hard to believe that noone saw it coming.

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